PROFORECASTS 9/21/07 FRI (Premium with Subscriber and Free parts)
Accuracy yesterday: 91.8%, UP +3523 in futures pips
Best to Use ProForecats and Sample Portfolios:
http://proforecasts.com/guide.htm
To Be a Subscriber or Premium by 9amET:
www.propredict.proforecasts.com/subscribe.htm
To Receive the Free Weekly ProForecasts by Sunday:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProPredictPredictions/
Today’s Featured Article: http://www.investors.com/
Example Portfolio stocks UP in a down market! Stocks of the Day, Example Portfolio, options and futures all beat the market averages except one (CBS MarketWatch).
I forecast that this is the bottom of the market and although it may test this bottom one more time, it is a return to the bull period. Time to do some bargain-hunting. Consider the list of ProStocks just emailed out and listed below as the Stocks of the Day for premium subscribers. Check results right below as of this week we are still ahead of the markets. I still predict the DJIA will be at 14250 by the end of the year.
With 5-10% in futures that would give a portfolio return of about 23-25% (way ahead of the market). Shows that even with less than perfect predictions, you can make an above-average profit. You only need to be accurate 76.5% to make a significant profit. InvestorTools states, “80% of all mutual funds perform under the market.”
Results as of Last Week: (add 8.4% for 5% futures, 16.8% for 10% futures)
UP 4.26%, 6.2% annualized in CBS MarketWatch!
UP 5% SP500
UP 8% DJIA
UP 8% Nasdaq
UP 10.1%, 14.6% annualized in DIA!
UP 11.0%, 15.9% annualized in SPY!
UP 14.7%, 21.3% annualized average in stock portfolios since 2003!
(For all major funds the three year annualized return is from 3.49% to at best 20.89%.)
UP 17.1%, 24.7% annualized in QQQQ!
UP 20.7%, 29.9% annualized for Stocks of the Day!
UP 26.5%, 38.3% annualized in ProFunds!
UP 116.2% (167.8% annualized) in futures (all yr-long funds stay same for long-term)!
UP 118% annualized in Recommended Stocks in four days (1.9% in four days)!
>>>Free ProForecasts: World Markets Weekly!
(Subscriber and Premium below if subscriber):
Weekly Market Forecasts and Last Week’s Results: 78.6%
Still practicing on world markets for now.
US:
DJIA (13442.52) week flat/UP; (inaccurate last week)
SP500 (1484.25): this week flat/UP; (inaccurate last week)
Nasdaq (2602.18): this week flat/UP; (inaccurate last week)
TNotes (103-24): this week flat/DOWN; (accurate last week)
Australia: ASX 200 Index (6306.80) flat/UP (accurate last week)
New Zealand: NZX 50 FF Index (4162.68) flat/UP (accurate last week)
Japan: NIKKEI Index (16,127.42) flat/UP (accurate last week)
Hong Kong: Hang Seng Index (24,898.11) flat/UP (accurate last week)
China: SHSE-SZSE300 Index (5397.28) flat/up (accurate last week)
Qatar: DSM 20 Index (7716.53) flat/up (accurate last week)
India: BSE SENSEX 30 (15,603.80) flat/up (accurate last week)
UK: FTSE 400 (6289.30) flat/UP (accurate last week)
Germany: DAX (7497.74) flat/UP (accurate last week)
France: CAC 40 (5538.92) flat/UP (accurate last week)
>>>Subscriber ProForecasts: ProFunds, Options, Stocks of the Day,
Stocks per Day, LT Stocks! (Premium below if subscriber):
UltraBull 77.91 -1.07
From previous position: +4.17
From previous position: -10.15
From previous position: +24.93, total so far: +19.75; 26.5%; annualized 38.3%
Options:
DIA: 137.70 -0.46
From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +1.87
From previous positions: +11.35, total so far: +13.62; 10.1%; annualized 14.6%
SPY: 152.28 -1.08
From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +0.68
From previous positions: +14.95, total so far: +16.43; 11.0%; annualized 15.9%
QQQQ: 50.03 -0.14
From previous position closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +1.41
From previous positions: +6.60, total so far: +8.41; 17.1%; annualized 24.7%
Stocks of the Day:
GS 203.53 -1.97
MS 64.63 -2.40
TGT 65.59 -0.59
CAT 77.37 -0.54
BHP 71.34 +0.94
BA 101.25 +1.23
RIG 112.76 +1.69
MDRX 26.68 -0.47
NUE 58.16 -0.61
RIO 29.85 +0.04
Total So Far: +6.31
From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +48.19
From previous portfolio closed Thursday, August 11, 2007: -24.97
From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007: -13.3
From previous portfolio closed Monday, April 23, 2007: +72.5 annualized 25.1%
From previous portfolio closed June, 2007 +72.9
annualized 15.2%
Total +162.89, 20.7%; annualized: 29.9%
Stocks to Consider for Significant Movement per Day This
Week:
(consider buying now or the day before)
NONE at this time; all cash for now.
Twelve Stocks to Consider for Long-Term Portfolio:
Including price and their ranking on MSN Stock Scouter 1-10
WHR (112.40), 7
BDK (95.19), 8
ATI (115.18), 6
BGC (65.57), 9
HON (57.79), 8
ASD (57.02), 6
JCI (109.91), 8
MDR (70.65), 6
FWLT (95.91), 6
CAT (74.88), 7
TEX (82.34), 9
DE (120.00), 7
Total: 999.05
Now: 1007.42 0.08%
>>>Premium ProForecasts
% is accuracy yesterday;
Quote is yesterday’s close;
** = accurate; * = difference not significant(0.5% or less);
no * = inaccurate;
d = down (usually indicating stay in position);
s = sideways (usually within 0.5% indicating do nothing);
u = up (usually indicating stay in position)
(if capitalized, forecast has changed since last forecast, usually indicating a
potential trade or close position)
PROFUTURES-Finance/Energy (78%)
DJIA 13766.70 ** su
SP500 1518.75 ** su
Nasdaq 2654.29 ** su
Note10yr 102-12 SD
Gold 743.00 ** u
Silver 13.61 ** u
Copper 357.00 ** u
Oil 81.70 * u
HOil 225.44 ** u
NGas 5.971 su
Example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-FE: DJ106a20S SP1195.70S NA1576S NT1112.9s GD423.5SD SL6.65sd
CP140.15sd OL48.28S HO134.38u NG60.80sd
PROFUTURES-Farm (89%)
Wheat 855.50 * sd
Corn 369.00 ** U
Soybeans 987.50 ** u
BeanOil 39.44 ** u
Cotton 64.87 ** su
Cattle 99.075 ** d
Hogs 64.65 ** d
Sugar 10.14 ** u
Coffee 133.15 ** u
Cocoa 1971 U
example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-F: WH296.5sd CN196d SY513.5d BO28.88u CT46.71su CA91.12u HG75.57su
SG8.84sd CF104.4SU CC14.96d
PROFUTURES-Curriencies (100%):
AustralianD .8638 ** u
GBP 2.0067 ** sd
Canadian$ 1.0002 ** u
Euro 1.4094 ** u
Yen .8786 ** S
Swiss .8580 ** u
Real: .5306 ** s
Peso: .090900 ** s
US$ 78.53 ** d
Yuan (to $): 0.0835 ** s
example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-C: AUD75.33sd GBP18599d CAD81.79SD EUR130.4d JPY98.16su CHF84.16sd
RL.4615s PS.091050s USD83.46su
PROFUTURES-Forex (100%):
AUD/USD: .8666 ** u
GBP/JPY: 231.22 ** s
GBP/USD: 2.0106 ** s
EUR/GBP: .7001 ** su
EUR/JPY: 161.87 ** su
EUR/CHF: 1.6501 ** s
EUR/USD: 1.4076 ** u
USD/CAD: .9908 ** d
USD/JPY: 115.00 ** SD
USD/CHF: 1.1723 ** d
example of Text-Message Sent:
PF-X: A/U.7570sd C/Y223.51s G/U1.8650sd E/G.6759s E/Y133.46sd
E/F1.5434s E/U1.3023sd U/C1.2206s U/Y102.48s U/F1.1849su
>>>Results:
All documented and linked at
www.proforecasts.com/results.htm
Futures: 2007: +473; 2006: +3855; total +4390
Futures (www.mocktrading.com):
2003-2006: 1020.6%
2006: 219%
2007: 56.7% (annualized 95.1%)
Stocks: CBS MarketWatch (http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/):
2006: 53.21%
2007: 2.19% (3.67% annualized)
Marketocracy (www.marketocracy.com):
average: 20.4%
Portfolio-Conservative: 2003-2007: 89.5%; annualized: 20.5%
Portfolio-Aggressive: 2003-2007: 106.7%; annualized: 24.6%
Portfolio-Speculative: 2003-2007: 78.6%; annualized: 18.1%
Portfolio-2006-2007: 29.6%; annualized 18.5%
>>>Documentation:
The Yahoo group is the main group where the predictions
have been listed since 2003 but the ProForecasts are also listed by 9:25amET at:
ProForecasts site:
http://www.proforecasts.com/today.htm
BayStreet.com:
http://www.baystreet.ca/forums/forum.cfm?FID=13
Blogger:
http://www.blogger.com/posts.g?blogID=10103733
Google-Groups:
http://groups-beta.google.com/group/propredictions
ICQ-Currents Events:
http://groups.icq.com/groups/group_details.php?gid=11996894
ICQ-News & Media:
http://groups.icq.com/groups/group_details.php?gid=11996893
MySpace:
http://blog.myspace.com/propredict
Topica:
http://lists.topica.com/lists/propredictions1/prefs/?sid=958627022
MSN:
http://groups.msn.com/ProPredictions/_whatsnew.msnw
>>>Sources We Summarize to Find Consensus:
We read and listen to these respectable sources to obtain the stocks and investments that have great fundamentals, sector and technical analysis (why duplicate what these sources already do well), then use the summary and consensus of them to pick from for our intuitive analysis. If you have any other sources, you think we should be considering, please let us know. Thanks!
>>>Market Timing Accuracy Requirement:
*1"one must be able to predict the market with at least 83%
accuracy,
a predictive ability that would be extremely difficult for even the
best market timer to sustain...If one compares the market timer's
return to that of a portfolio of stocks and cash weighted to have the
same standard deviation as the market timer's portfolio, the result
is that the market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to
perform better than the passive portfolio of the same risk. So even
after adjusting for risk, a significant predictive ability still is
required." (William Sharpe, "Likely Gains from Market Timing",
MBA-Finance Dept).
http://www.quickmba.com/finance/invest/timing/
>>>Example Portfolio:
XOM 92.09 -0.03
MHS 87.22 -1.54
EPD 31.69 -0.03
RIMM 90.23 -1.57
FCX 107.57 +2.07
COP 88.41 +0.12
GOOG 552.83 +5.98
T 42.03 +0.45
DE 144.48 -0.62
FWLT 130.17 -1.55
Total so far: +20.62
From previous portfolio closed Monday, September 17, 2007: +39.81
From previous portfolio closed Friday, August 11, 2007: -9.81
From previous portfolio closed Friday, July 27, 2007: -46.21
>>>Subscriber Questions and Answers;